Happy Saturday!
I hope you’ve had a great week.
I’ve again spent most of my time backtesting this week to gather more data on my edge.
This will likely continue for the next few weeks as I want to make sure that I gather enough solid data to help me feel comfortable trading this strategy in the live markets.
Backtesting Progression
I have now finished the month of March 2023. I’ve made some fantastic progress this week, gathering 4 weeks worth of data and a total of 47 logged trades for the year thus far.
Results measured in R (R = % gained).
The results for March are a lot lower than February, but still profit regardless.
I have a feeling this is more down to a mindset shift within my backtesting. My mission now is to take every trade that is valid rather than taking the medium/high probability setups.
Why?
The reason this is more effective in backtesting is because if you do make a mistake in the live markets, by taking a valid low probability trade, you know that this loss is a part of the system.
This supports the positive mindset behaviours for taking an inevitable loss – you will not be angered by it and do something stupid, because you know you are still on the right path.
There’s nothing wrong with aiming for high/medium probability setups in backtesting and trying to replicate what you will do in the live markets, but I think it’s much better to gather a realistic scenario of what will happen.
I say this because not every day you are going to be in the right mindset when trading. You may be:
- Tired
- Distracted
- Not feeling well
- Or just generally not on the ball
So you are more likely to take a low probability setup.
Mindset
My mindset for this week has been pretty decent, now that I know people view this blog I feel encouraged to gather this data to show how everything is progressing.
I would feel bad if people are following the backtesting and they see I only got a few days of backtesting when I know I can achieve a lot more.
As mentioned above, in my backtesting, I did have a mindset shift of my ways of approaching backtesting and this is probably something I should have done when I started this data gathering.
So there is some element of regret because February should probably have a much lower number than it does and that can impact the overall result of the strategy.
That being said, it’s not affecting me too much but I must bear it in mind when I look at my overall results.
Aside from that though I am proud of the work that I have put into data gathering this week.
Trading Corner
FXReplay has still been my go-to tool for backtesting this week. I’ve been using it for years now, so at this point it feels second nature.
When it comes to tracking my trades, I don’t really use FXReplay’s built-in logging features. Instead, I use the spreadsheet provided by Photon. It already has all the formulas set up, so all I need to do is fill in the key details and it does the rest.
That combination: FXReplay for speed and flexibility + Photon’s sheet for clear performance tracking = a simple and reliable process (which makes testing a lot easier for me!).
At the end of the day, it’s less about the tools and more about having a workflow you can stick with long-term.
Key Takeaway for the Week
This week reminded me that backtesting isn’t about creating perfect numbers; it’s about gathering honest data and practicing consistency. Even the trades that don’t work out are part of the bigger picture as they strengthen your confidence in the system when it matters most.
Setting realistic and honest expectations for your system will help you keep a stable way of thinking when pushing through the endeavour of reaching profitable consistency.
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If you found this week’s backtesting helpful, pass it on to another trader who’s navigating the backtesting grind. The journey feels lighter when it’s shared.
If you want to try the tools & course I’ve mentioned for yourself, here are the links:
