Hello Traders!
This week was not the most productive I will admit but I have managed to gather my 100th backtested trade.
This is a huge step forward because now we can start to get an idea of how the strategy will likely perform over a large sample size.
100 trades is the bare minimum and the optimal is more around the 200-300 recorded trades, so that’s the next goal!
Let’s have a look at the data.
(Tools I have used this week are featured at the bottom of the blog, including discounts!)
Backtesting Progression
Here’s the stats:
- 101 total trades
- 45.54% strike rate
- 97.80% return
Results measured in R (R = % gained)
An extremely profitable strategy even when we take the silly low probability trades (read Weekly Overview #11 here if you want to learn more about low probability trades)
It’s taken a while to gather all this data, especially since I took a break to actually try out the strategy in a live market and because some weeks my motivation to backtest is quite low but that’s fine, the small weeks of progress do add up eventually!
What does it mean to have 100 trades tested?
The main point of gathering this much data is so you can see how well the strategy will perform over a large sample size. It shows you profitability and how much you can likely (not certainly) make and lose over X period of time & trades.
How can you say you have an edge over 10, 20, or 50 tested trades? You will never know the true extent of losing streaks or different scenarios for your trade execution.
The more tested trades you have the better, but this doesn’t mean to go crazy and start rushing through the days on FXReplay. You’ll only make mistakes and take trades that don’t meet your rules.
Be methodical and process oriented when it comes to going through the days.
How can I achieve this?
Here’s a very light overview of my backtesting process to help you formulate your own process:
- Pre-session analysis put in Notion
- Slowly go through the day on FXReplay, waiting for my entry to appear
- Post-session analysis put in Notion + record any trades in Google Sheet
- Write out with pen and paper what happened on this day
This helps stop making mistakes and I can absorb everything about the day I just tested.
An important thing to remember when backtesting is to not overanalyse trades. It’s so easy to try and justify invalid wins and overanalyse losing trades saying why you shouldn’t have taken that trade.
Keep it simple, stick to your rules, losing trades happen.
What’s next for backtesting?
I want to go over these trades to make sure that they are valid and meet my rules because mistakes can be made.
I’ve already started to review and have found 2 invalid trades, which have been excluded from the above data and there’s still a chance to find more but I will let you know next week.
Then after that it’s time to go and get the next 100 trades!
I might be able to gather these next 100 trades before I start live trading again as I don’t plan to go live until the end of Jan 2026 but we will see.
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As promised, here are the tools I have used this week:
- FXReplay (for 15% off monthly plans, use code: MTRFX15, for 7% off yearly plans, use code: MTRFX7)
- Recommended course
- Notion
Check out the tools page for more info
Thank you for taking the time to read this blog post, it means a lot to me.
See you next week and happy trading!