Hello Traders!
Apologies for the late release.
This week is another productive week gaining a lot more backtested data and I have managed to surpass the losing streak high.
What about the title of this blog though? Let’s see 🙂
Backtesting Progression
Here is the updated statistics for my strategy:
- 134 total trades
- 42.54% strike rate
- 112.10% return
June 2023 is looking great so far, I am on the 26th day of the month so only 4 more days to go.
Results measures in R (R = % gained)
Once again if we compare to last week’s blog progress, I have generated good data and have now surpassed the high of the start of the losing streak! (peaked at 104% return).
This is an amazing bounce back and shows the power of Risk:Reward and how I always knew it would recover!
The Losing Streak
I like to imagine that if I had started on the losing streak (which was 16 trades) then I likely wouldn’t have kept going with this strategy and I would have moved onto something else.
However, it’s important to remember though that this isn’t enough data for ANY edge to play out which is why I will always say (and keep saying) you need to have that golden 100 trades to see if it’s viable or not over a large sample size.
Something else to note is that despite the fact that I have the data to show that these losing streaks are possible and can happen, it is entirely possible that when I go back to live trading, I start with a losing streak like this.
It will likely damage my psychology and mood but there’s 2 very important things I, and anyone else who endures a streak like this must do:
- Stick to the plan, nothing changes (and I mean nothing!)
- Keep pushing on
If we do either of those things whilst being beaten down by the mathematics of engaging in random distribution & probabilities, then this will likely have a compounding negative effect on our strategies performance and our own psychology.
Change nothing and push on!
This is the absolute value of backtesting, because you can see the losing streak in context with everything else. A losing streak of 16 looks minimal over 200 backtested trades or 134 in my case…
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As promised, here are the tools I have used this week:
- FXReplay (for 15% off monthly plans, use code: MTRFX15, for 7% off yearly plans, use code: MTRFX7)
- Recommended course
- Notion
Check out the tools page for more info
Thank you for taking the time to read this blog post, it means a lot to me.
